Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
